First a caveat: I think I understand the rules for voting on the Speaker of the House. The following fever-dream scenario only works if I have an accurate understanding of them. If you know better, please enlighten me. And with that, let’s go.
Last night, I had one of those “ideas that come to you in the middle of the night and keep you from falling back asleep” moments that I just couldn’t get out of my head for the rest of the day while watching the vote for Speaker on C-SPAN. I noticed that most of the members in the House, whether negotiating or voting or just generally creeping people out, are doing so without masks on. After everyone has gathered for the holidays. And traveled from their home states. And been confined in the same chamber for hours on end, day after day. Taking into account the latest COVID-19 infection rates in DC, it’s safe to assume that of the 434 currently voting members, 52 will probably test positive in the next day or two.
Now, let’s get another few caveats out of the way: The first is that all the members are testing regularly. I honestly don’t think we can assume that, but let’s give them the benefit of the doubt, shall we? Second, let’s also assume that if a member or Representative-elect does test positive, they’ll do the right thing and stay away from the House chamber. Again, I hope that we can trust them on this, but it’s hard to take some of them at their word. Lastly, let’s make a conservative estimate about infection rates, cutting it in half to 6%. That means that of the 434 voting members, 26 will have positive tests.
With all this in mind, we’ll keep going. My understanding of the House rules is that a Speaker needs a majority of the votes cast. So, as the House stands today with 434 votes, the nominee needs 50% plus one [(434 ÷ 2) + 1 = 218] votes to win. Which also explains why, despite continually getting a plurality of the votes (212 to 202, for most of the 11 rounds of voting), Hakeem Jeffries also falls short of the threshold for the majority of votes.
Here’s where the fever dream starts to really kick in. Going back to the COVID positivity rates, and assuming it hits both Democrats and Republicans in equal measures, that means 13 people from each party would have positive tests and would be unable to vote. In this scenario, that would leave 199 Democrats and 209 Republicans to vote for Speaker, making the total number of votes 408, lowering the majority needed to 205. And, extending the positivity rate to the 20 holdouts, that means at least 1, but probably 2 of the never-McCarthy voters would be unable to continue casting their protest votes. That scenario would play out in vote totals something like this:
Hakeem Jeffries 199 Kevin McCarthy 191 Other nominees 18
As you can see, this means there’s still no majority for Speaker. But I don’t think that’s the end of the story. It means that the Democrats are only a handful of votes from winning the Speaker’s vote. And if we make another leap and assume “Those least likely to worry about getting covid (Republicans) have been those most likely to get covid,” then we might also speculate that positivity rates for the House might hit Republicans in a slightly higher percentage than Democrats. And if it‘s only by 1 or 2% more, that could be all it takes for my fever dream to become a reality.
Now, I want to be clear here: I don’t think that this is going to happen. But I watched a lot of the West Wing marathon on HLN over the holidays, and I have a feeling that some Sorkin may have gotten into me. But these numbers are very possible. And also, very unlikely. Nevertheless, I’ll keep watching each and every vote, running the numbers to see if everyone is still voting (did you notice the last few votes were cast by only 432 members?), wondering how many members are going to keep showing up, repeating the same process over and over until a majority prevails.
Circle of Power
05 January 2023
Vote early and often.
First a caveat: I think I understand the rules for voting on the Speaker of the House. The following fever-dream scenario only works if I have an accurate understanding of them. If you know better, please enlighten me. And with that, let’s go.
Last night, I had one of those “ideas that come to you in the middle of the night and keep you from falling back asleep” moments that I just couldn’t get out of my head for the rest of the day while watching the vote for Speaker on C-SPAN. I noticed that most of the members in the House, whether negotiating or voting or just generally creeping people out, are doing so without masks on. After everyone has gathered for the holidays. And traveled from their home states. And been confined in the same chamber for hours on end, day after day. Taking into account the latest COVID-19 infection rates in DC, it’s safe to assume that of the 434 currently voting members, 52 will probably test positive in the next day or two.
Now, let’s get another few caveats out of the way: The first is that all the members are testing regularly. I honestly don’t think we can assume that, but let’s give them the benefit of the doubt, shall we? Second, let’s also assume that if a member or Representative-elect does test positive, they’ll do the right thing and stay away from the House chamber. Again, I hope that we can trust them on this, but it’s hard to take some of them at their word. Lastly, let’s make a conservative estimate about infection rates, cutting it in half to 6%. That means that of the 434 voting members, 26 will have positive tests.
With all this in mind, we’ll keep going. My understanding of the House rules is that a Speaker needs a majority of the votes cast. So, as the House stands today with 434 votes, the nominee needs 50% plus one [(434 ÷ 2) + 1 = 218] votes to win. Which also explains why, despite continually getting a plurality of the votes (212 to 202, for most of the 11 rounds of voting), Hakeem Jeffries also falls short of the threshold for the majority of votes.
Here’s where the fever dream starts to really kick in. Going back to the COVID positivity rates, and assuming it hits both Democrats and Republicans in equal measures, that means 13 people from each party would have positive tests and would be unable to vote. In this scenario, that would leave 199 Democrats and 209 Republicans to vote for Speaker, making the total number of votes 408, lowering the majority needed to 205. And, extending the positivity rate to the 20 holdouts, that means at least 1, but probably 2 of the never-McCarthy voters would be unable to continue casting their protest votes. That scenario would play out in vote totals something like this:
Hakeem Jeffries 199
Kevin McCarthy 191
Other nominees 18
As you can see, this means there’s still no majority for Speaker. But I don’t think that’s the end of the story. It means that the Democrats are only a handful of votes from winning the Speaker’s vote. And if we make another leap and assume “Those least likely to worry about getting covid (Republicans) have been those most likely to get covid,” then we might also speculate that positivity rates for the House might hit Republicans in a slightly higher percentage than Democrats. And if it‘s only by 1 or 2% more, that could be all it takes for my fever dream to become a reality.
Now, I want to be clear here: I don’t think that this is going to happen. But I watched a lot of the West Wing marathon on HLN over the holidays, and I have a feeling that some Sorkin may have gotten into me. But these numbers are very possible. And also, very unlikely. Nevertheless, I’ll keep watching each and every vote, running the numbers to see if everyone is still voting (did you notice the last few votes were cast by only 432 members?), wondering how many members are going to keep showing up, repeating the same process over and over until a majority prevails.
See you tomorrow?